A bad outcome doesn’t necessarily mean you made a bad decision. For example, a farmer can prepare the fields, plant improved seeds, weed, and irrigate, but then the yields may be quite poor. This doesn’t mean that the farmer did something wrong. It is just that the future is uncertain, and we can’t fully control it. A big portion of success is entirely outside our control. So we should be humble when we are winning and not become too desperate when we lose.
I recall when we started a cottage business manufacturing food condiments for schools in 2019. We had started to take off when a random COVID-19 virus from China shut down the global economy, including all the schools that were our primary market. So, the business hit a huge roadblock that was totally not in our control. The decision to start the business may have been a good one, but the outcome, nonetheless, was a bad one.
This phenomenon is well illustrated in a book called “Thinking in Bets” by Annie Duke. The author argues that life is more like poker than chess. In chess, all the pieces are on the board, and there is no element of luck involved in the outcome. Poker, on the other hand, involves hidden information and a high degree of uncertainty, much like the decisions we make in our lives. Duke emphasizes that making a decision with the best information available does not always guarantee a good outcome because of the inherent uncertainty of life.
We can improve our decision-making process when confronted by uncertainty by adopting a few strategic practices:
1. Distinguish between decision quality and outcome: Learn to evaluate your decisions based on the information available at the time, not the outcome. Outcomes can be influenced by factors outside your control, and good decisions can sometimes lead to bad outcomes.
2. Embrace a probabilistic mindset: Think in terms of probabilities rather than certainties. This approach helps you assess risks more effectively and makes you more comfortable with the uncertainties of decision-making.
3. Learn from each outcome: Whether an outcome is good or bad, there is always a lesson to be learned. This doesn’t mean blaming yourself for unforeseen events, but rather analyzing what you could do better next time, given the same information.
4. Develop resilience: Resilience is key to dealing with bad outcomes. Understand that setbacks are temporary and often provide valuable insights that can lead to better decisions in the future.
5. Consult diverse perspectives: Before making a decision, seek input from various sources. Different viewpoints can provide new information or highlight potential problems you might not have considered.
By incorporating these strategies, we can better navigate the complexities of life and business, making informed decisions even in the face of uncertainty. Remember, a bad outcome does not retroactively turn a good decision into a bad one. It simply means that there are elements beyond our control, and learning to adapt is crucial for long-term success.
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