Survivorship bias

Only about 3% of athletes who participate in the Olympics ever win a gold medal. Now you really need to be a top athlete to even reach the Olympics. The odds are quite slim if you consider the fact that there are millions if not billions of potential athletes in the world competing to get an Olympic gold medal. So the harsh reality is that winning a gold medal is almost an impossibility for the majority of people.

Despite this the culture heavily celebrates the few people who actually win gold medals. These people are often famous and some end up rather rich. We see them on billboards, on TV, on famous brands, etc. Because of this millions of people attempt to get a gold medal every other year. Needless to say the majority fail at this futile attempt and moreover we never hear of their struggles. We simply celebrate the few winners and forget everyone else. These few winners go on to shape the narrative about what it takes to succeed. However this is often a narrow view which is devoid of the harsh reality of the millions of people who attempt but fail in the process.

This phenomenon is usually referred to as survivorship bias. Survivorship bias is a type of cognitive bias that occurs when we concentrate on the people or things that “survived” some process and inadvertently ignore those that didn’t because of their lack of visibility. This bias can lead to false conclusions because it can skew our understanding of reality based on incomplete information.

In a broader context, survivorship bias can appear in many areas of life. For example, if you only focus on successful entrepreneurs’ stories, you might think that starting your own business is a sure way to become a billionaire, ignoring the fact that the majority of start-ups fail. Survivorship bias can lead to overly optimistic beliefs because failures are ignored or not visible. It’s important to consider all available data, including information about what didn’t work or who didn’t “survive”, to make a balanced analysis or decision.

So we need to temper the advice we receive from so called “successful” people. These people are often an anomaly in society and though they may genuinely mean well, the reality is that their experiences are inherently biased. You may do well to seek out the people who have tried and failed and learn from their stories. This way you get a balanced view of things and can then make a better informed decision.